By Wang Wei'an

王偉安

The EU summit recently concluded in Brussels, the capital of Belgium. Certain key issues including support to Ukraine, European defense, and the situation in the Middle East were discussed at the summit. Considering the high uncertainty regarding the security commitments of the Trump administration of the US to Europe, as well as the practical pressure imposed by the lasting Russia-Ukraine conflict and related spillover risks, the EU member states have reached a consensus on seeking European defense autonomy. The summit sought to shift the role of the EU in its own defense from "executor" to "decision-maker", thus enhancing the EU's say over European defense.

日前，歐盟峰會(huì)在比利時(shí)首都布魯塞爾結(jié)束。峰會(huì)討論了援助烏克蘭、歐洲防務(wù)以及中東局勢等重要議題。鑒于美國特朗普政府對歐洲安全承諾存在高度不確定性，以及俄烏沖突延宕乃至外溢風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日增的現(xiàn)實(shí)壓力，謀求防務(wù)自主已成為歐盟各國的普遍共識(shí)。這次峰會(huì)試圖將歐盟的防務(wù)角色從“執(zhí)行者”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤皼Q策者”，以提升歐盟在歐洲防務(wù)問題上的話語權(quán)。

Of note is that the outcome document of the summit didn't clearly mention whether to approve or not the Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030 (hereinafter referred to as "Roadmap") unveiled by the European Commission previously. It exposes doubts and differences haunting the Roadmap, which has only garnered "limited consensus" so far.

值得注意的是，峰會(huì)成果文件未明確提及是否“通過”此前歐盟委員會(huì)提出的“防務(wù)備戰(zhàn)路線圖2030”（以下簡稱“路線圖”）。這顯示出不少歐盟國家對“路線圖”存有疑慮和分歧，僅達(dá)成“有限共識(shí)”。

The Roadmap calls on EU member states to build "a sufficiently strong European defense posture to credibly deter its adversaries and respond to any aggression" in the following critical five-year period. It also proposes four prioritized "flagship" projects, including the European Drone Defense Initiative, the Eastern Flank Watch, the European Air Shield, and the European Space Shield, for the purpose of strengthening the EU's deterrence and defense in land, sea, air, cyber and outer space, and other domains.

“路線圖”要求歐盟成員國在未來的關(guān)鍵5年內(nèi)“建設(shè)足夠強(qiáng)大的歐洲防衛(wèi)體系，建立可信的戰(zhàn)略威懾，應(yīng)對任何侵略”，并提出4個(gè)優(yōu)先“旗艦”項(xiàng)目，即“歐洲無人機(jī)防御倡議”“東翼監(jiān)測”“防空盾牌”“防御太空盾牌”，以強(qiáng)化歐盟在陸、海、空、網(wǎng)絡(luò)與太空等領(lǐng)域的威懾與防衛(wèi)能力。

Notwithstanding the continuous expansion of defense spending of many European countries, due to historical and practical factors, the progress of European defense autonomy is "idealistic in theory but harsh in reality", with the implementation of the ambitious Roadmap vision doomed to multiple challenges.

盡管目前多個(gè)歐洲國家都在持續(xù)提高國防支出，但由于歷史和現(xiàn)實(shí)的原因，歐洲防務(wù)自主進(jìn)程“理想豐滿、現(xiàn)實(shí)骨感”，實(shí)現(xiàn)“路線圖”雄心勃勃的愿景仍面臨多重難題。

The internal cause of the differences primarily comes from interest gaming within the EU. As an issue concerning national sovereignty, defense integration has always been sensitive in the EU. Some EU member states are concerned that the European Commission and other institutions are attempting to interfere in their national defense policies through the Roadmap. The European Commission had to emphasize in the Roadmap that "member States are and will remain sovereign for their national security and defense." Southern European countries such as Spain and Italy expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that the "flagship" projects prefer mainly the eastern part of Europe. France, Germany, and other major countries strongly oppose the usage of various European defense funds to subsidize the concept of "drone wall" for Eastern European countries. The European Commission had no choice but to compromise, emphasizing the "pan-European" nature and the "360-degree approach" to fund allocation of the projects.

歐盟內(nèi)部的利益博弈，是分歧產(chǎn)生的主要內(nèi)因。防務(wù)一體化涉及國家主權(quán)，歷來是歐盟內(nèi)部較敏感的議題。部分歐盟國家擔(dān)心，歐盟委員會(huì)等機(jī)構(gòu)企圖通過“路線圖”插手干預(yù)本國國防政策。歐盟委員會(huì)不得不在“路線圖”中強(qiáng)調(diào)，在國防事務(wù)上，“成員國現(xiàn)在是、未來也仍將是獨(dú)立自主的”。西班牙、意大利等南歐國家對“旗艦”項(xiàng)目主要惠及歐洲東部地區(qū)表示不滿。法、德等大國則強(qiáng)烈反對用歐洲各類防務(wù)基金為東歐國家的“無人機(jī)墻”構(gòu)想買單。歐盟委員會(huì)只得做出妥協(xié)，強(qiáng)調(diào)項(xiàng)目的“泛歐”性質(zhì)及“360度全方位”資金分配。

The funding restraint and technical bottlenecks constraining the implementation of the Roadmap also lead to sparse proponents of the initiative. The Roadmap will only be implemented through substantial financial support. As such, many EU member states will see a further rise in their already high debts, which will cause potential social contradictions and even political unrest. Moreover, significant gaps exist in Europe's technological buildup and industrial support in space defense, drone and counter-drone, and other fields. Since the feasibility of the "flagship" projects in the Roadmap is still to be verified, they are highly likely to remain on paper in the short term.

實(shí)現(xiàn)“路線圖”目標(biāo)面臨的資金緊張困境和技術(shù)瓶頸制約，也是響應(yīng)者寥寥的原因。“路線圖”落實(shí)需要巨額資金支持，這將導(dǎo)致歐盟多國本已高企的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)繼續(xù)攀升，進(jìn)而引發(fā)社會(huì)矛盾乃至政治動(dòng)蕩。此外，歐洲在太空防御、無人機(jī)與反無人機(jī)等領(lǐng)域技術(shù)積累和產(chǎn)業(yè)配套上均存在明顯不足?！奥肪€圖”中各“旗艦”項(xiàng)目的可行性有待驗(yàn)證，短期內(nèi)大概率將停留在紙面上。

Another major barrier facing the EU's pursuit of defense autonomy stems from pressure and control imposed by the US. Indeed, the EU is unlikely to remove and eliminate its reliance on the US and NATO in defense. The Roadmap emphasizes defense autonomy on the one hand, and requires every project to "ensure maximum coherence and mutual reinforcement, while avoiding unnecessary duplications" on the other hand. Europe not only has developed the subjective policy logic and psychological tendency of enjoying NATO's security benefits, but also suffers long-term objective reliance on and control by NATO in command structures, conventional weapons and equipment, and even nuclear deterrence, to name a few.

來自美國的壓力和控制仍是歐盟追求防務(wù)自主的一大障礙。事實(shí)上，歐盟難以在短期內(nèi)擺脫和消除對美國和北約的防務(wù)依賴?！奥肪€圖”一面強(qiáng)調(diào)防務(wù)自主，一面又要求所有項(xiàng)目均需“與北約保持協(xié)同，避免重復(fù)建設(shè)，強(qiáng)化功能互補(bǔ)”。歐洲主觀上已形成了搭北約安全便車的政策邏輯與心理慣性，客觀上在指揮架構(gòu)、常規(guī)武器裝備乃至核威懾等諸多領(lǐng)域還將長期依賴并受制于北約。