In mid-to-late October, NATO conducted its annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise. Almost simultaneously, Russia held a full nuclear triad drill to test the readiness of its nuclear deterrent. These parallel exercises have further complicated and destabilized the already fragile landscape of global arms control.
10月中下旬，北約舉行“堅定正午”核演習(xí)。幾乎同時，俄羅斯也舉行了戰(zhàn)略核力量綜合演習(xí)，全面檢驗核力量的戰(zhàn)備狀態(tài)。相關(guān)演習(xí)給本就復(fù)雜脆弱的國際軍控形勢帶來消極影響。
NATO pushes forward with its Nuclear Sharing Arrangements
北約推進(jìn)“核共享”計劃
Although NATO repeatedly emphasized that the Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise was unrelated to any real-world event, the timing and scope of the drills clearly reflect the tense security environment between Russia and Europe and reveal NATO's deepening "nuclear sharing" mindset.
盡管北約一再強(qiáng)調(diào)“堅定正午”核演習(xí)“不關(guān)聯(lián)任何現(xiàn)實事件”，但該演習(xí)在時間節(jié)點與內(nèi)容設(shè)置上難以脫離當(dāng)前緊張的俄歐局勢，愈發(fā)體現(xiàn)出北約的“核共享”思維。
The confrontational posture is becoming increasingly pronounced. In recent years, NATO has justified the intensification of its nuclear exercises by citing exacerbating external threats. This year's Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise simulated the entire process of a nuclear strike mission, with a particular focus on enhancing the protection of nuclear weapon storage and transport sites.
對抗態(tài)勢更趨明顯。近年來，北約以外部威脅加劇為由，不斷提升核演習(xí)強(qiáng)度。本次“堅定正午”核演習(xí)模擬了核打擊任務(wù)的全流程作業(yè)，強(qiáng)化演練了對核武器儲存與運輸節(jié)點的安全防護(hù)。
Multidimensional coordination becomes more frequent. A defining feature of NATO's Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise lies in the growing integration between nuclear and conventional deterrence. The exercise made full use of multiple military bases across the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Denmark for coordinated deployment, reflecting NATO's continued efforts to extend and integrate its nuclear deterrence posture northward toward Russia and the Arctic.
多維聯(lián)動日益頻繁。北約“堅定正午”核演習(xí)的顯著特征不僅體現(xiàn)為多國聯(lián)合，還體現(xiàn)為以核威懾強(qiáng)化常規(guī)威懾的核常聯(lián)動。演習(xí)充分利用荷蘭、比利時、英國與丹麥多處軍事基地進(jìn)行協(xié)同部署，顯示出北約核威懾體系持續(xù)向北翼和北極方向深度整合，以對俄形成更全面的戰(zhàn)略懾壓態(tài)勢。
Multiple parties engage in intense and complex contest
多方復(fù)雜密集角力
Recently, various parties have engaged in intricate and concentrated interactions and competitions concerning nuclear weapons development, deployment, and adjustments to nuclear policies.
近期，各方圍繞核武器發(fā)展部署、核政策改革調(diào)整等方面，展開了復(fù)雜密集的互動與較量。
The US has accelerated the development of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. Since May this year, the US has begun mass-producing the new B61-13 tactical nuclear bomb. In addition to retaining controllable yield characteristics, it also features so-called "conventional weapon effects", including low radioactive fallout and a short half-life. This not only provides a new option for the US nuclear deterrence "toolbox" but also increasingly blurs the boundaries of nuclear warfare.
美國加速研制低當(dāng)量的戰(zhàn)術(shù)核武器。美自今年5月開始批量生產(chǎn)的B61-13新型戰(zhàn)術(shù)核彈，除了延續(xù)當(dāng)量可控的特征外，還兼具核沾染低、半衰期短等所謂“常規(guī)武器效應(yīng)”，不僅為美國核威懾“工具箱”提供新的可用選項，也使核戰(zhàn)爭邊界日益模糊。
Russia has taken countermeasures by conducting nuclear deterrence exercises and updating its nuclear deterrence policies. During NATO's Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise, Russia held a full nuclear triad drill to fully test its nuclear readiness. In November last year, Russia updated the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, further lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. Russia's nuclear capability development safeguards its national security while simultaneously fueling the ongoing escalation of tensions between the two sides.
俄羅斯通過舉行核威懾演習(xí)、更新核威懾政策等方式進(jìn)行反制。俄羅斯在北約“堅定正午”核演習(xí)期間舉行了戰(zhàn)略核力量綜合演習(xí)，全面檢驗核力量的戰(zhàn)備狀態(tài)。去年11月，俄更新了《俄羅斯聯(lián)邦核威懾國家基本政策》，核武器使用門檻進(jìn)一步降低。俄羅斯的核能力建設(shè)維護(hù)了國家安全的基本盤，也讓雙方對抗持續(xù)升級。
Facing Russia's nuclear deterrence signals and the uncertainty of US nuclear policy, NATO's European members are turning to strengthen their own nuclear deterrence capabilities. On one hand, European nuclear-armed states are continuously enhancing their nuclear posture. On the other hand, non-nuclear European countries increasingly rely on nuclear capabilities for security guarantees. However, Europe's pursuit of "nuclear autonomy" faces multiple challenges, including funding and technological constraints, and the US-led NATO nuclear framework is unlikely to be fundamentally altered by individual states' initiatives. Europe's efforts to bolster its nuclear capabilities will further intensify strategic tensions with Russia, exacerbating the continent's security dilemma.
面對俄羅斯釋放的核威懾信號和美國核政策的不確定性，北約歐洲成員國轉(zhuǎn)向加強(qiáng)自身核威懾能力建設(shè)。一方面，歐洲擁核國家不斷提升自身核威懾水平。另一方面，歐洲無核國家也傾向依仗核力量謀求安全保障。然而，歐洲追求“核自主”面臨資金、技術(shù)等多重難題，且美國主導(dǎo)的北約核機(jī)制不可能因部分國家的舉動發(fā)生顛覆性變化。歐洲強(qiáng)化自身核實力的舉動，會進(jìn)一步加劇俄歐之間的戰(zhàn)略對抗，使歐洲安全困境更加嚴(yán)峻。
International strategic trust is eroded
損害國際戰(zhàn)略互信
The frequent release of nuclear deterrence signals by various parties has led to a decline in international strategic trust, continuously impacting the global arms control.
各方頻繁釋放核威懾信號，使得國際戰(zhàn)略互信遞減，對國際軍控體系造成持續(xù)沖擊。
It would trigger large-scale nuclear arms races. Nuclear actions conducted by NATO and Russia under the pretext of "routine" or "defensive" operations are perceived as provocative deterrence by the other side, significantly reducing the room for communication and confidence-building during crises, and thereby intensifying the nuclear arms race.
誘發(fā)大規(guī)模核軍備競賽。北約及俄羅斯以“例行”“防御”為名實施的核動作，均被對方視為挑釁性威懾，顯著減少了雙方在危機(jī)中進(jìn)行溝通與建立信任的操作空間，進(jìn)而加劇核軍備競賽。
It would increase regional nuclear conflict risks. Nuclear exercises conducted near borders, like Steadfast Noon, are highly prone to miscalculation, raising the risk of nuclear confrontation. In fact, NATO has long been preparing for "surgical" low-yield nuclear strikes against adversaries, with potential targets extending beyond Russia.
推升地區(qū)核沖突風(fēng)險。類似“堅定正午”這種抵近邊境的核演習(xí)極易引發(fā)誤判，增加核沖突的風(fēng)險。事實上，北約一直在準(zhǔn)備向?qū)κ职l(fā)動“外科手術(shù)式”的低當(dāng)量核打擊，其潛在目標(biāo)不僅包括俄羅斯。
At present, the global nuclear arms control faces severe challenges. The future of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) remains uncertain, and the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) looks unlikely. Great power nuclear competition has seriously undermined the authority and effectiveness of the international arms control regime, exposing the international community to a complex and severe nuclear proliferation landscape.
當(dāng)前，全球核軍控體系正面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，《全面禁止核試驗條約》前景不明，《新削減戰(zhàn)略武器條約》續(xù)約渺茫。大國核博弈嚴(yán)重?fù)p害國際軍控體系的權(quán)威性和有效性，使國際社會面臨復(fù)雜嚴(yán)峻的核擴(kuò)散態(tài)勢。
(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
（作者單位：軍事科學(xué)院）
