By Wang Daning

王大寧

According to foreign media reports, the US is expected to officially release its new National Defense Strategy and related reports by the end of October. The updated strategy will prioritize security within the US homeland and the Western Hemisphere, accelerate the global strategic contraction, and urge European allies to assume greater defense responsibilities. This series of adjustments, marked by a strong America First orientation, is set to have a profound impact on transatlantic relations and further prompt Europe to reflect on the issue of defense autonomy.

據(jù)外媒報(bào)道，美國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)于10月底正式發(fā)布新版《國(guó)防戰(zhàn)略》及相關(guān)報(bào)告。新版戰(zhàn)略將優(yōu)先聚焦美國(guó)本土與西半球安全，加速推進(jìn)全球戰(zhàn)略收縮，并敦促歐洲盟友承擔(dān)更多防務(wù)責(zé)任。這一系列調(diào)整帶有鮮明的“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”色彩，將直接對(duì)跨大西洋關(guān)系造成重大沖擊，并進(jìn)一步促使歐洲深入思考防務(wù)自主議題。

The US Department of Defense announced that Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and his team are responsible for drafting the new National Defense Strategy (NDS). Alongside it, the Pentagon will also release the Global Posture Review (GPR), Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), and Missile Defense Review (MDR). According to US media reports, the new NDS represents a reassessment of America's overall strength and strategic resources. Its core logic largely aligns with the approach taken after Donald Trump's return to the White House. To be specific, it seeks to break away from the post–Cold War security model of global intervention and absolute dominance, and instead establish a security framework characterized by focusing on primary threats, reducing peripheral commitments, and encouraging allies to share greater responsibilities.

美國(guó)國(guó)防部發(fā)布消息稱(chēng)，美國(guó)國(guó)防部政策事務(wù)副部長(zhǎng)科爾比及其團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)制定新版《國(guó)防戰(zhàn)略》，并將同步推出《全球態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估》《核態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估》《導(dǎo)彈防御評(píng)估》等報(bào)告。據(jù)美媒披露，新版戰(zhàn)略是美國(guó)對(duì)自身綜合實(shí)力與戰(zhàn)略資源的重新評(píng)估，其核心邏輯與特朗普重返白宮后的思路基本一致：即試圖打破冷戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期秉持的“全球干預(yù)”與“絕對(duì)主導(dǎo)”安全模式，轉(zhuǎn)而構(gòu)建以“聚焦首要威脅、壓縮邊際義務(wù)、推動(dòng)盟友分?jǐn)傌?zé)任”為特征的安全框架。

Under this framework, the US will prioritize the security of its homeland and the Western Hemisphere, seeking to concentrate resources through strategic retrenchment and burden-shifting. This move will not only reshape the future global security architecture but also profoundly influence the dynamics of major-country competition. As Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Americas, the US military is expected to strengthen homeland defense and tighten control over key neighboring regions, while its role within the European alliance system will evolve from a frontline leader to a rear-area overseer.

在此框架下，美國(guó)將把本土和西半球安全置于優(yōu)先位置，通過(guò)戰(zhàn)略收縮與責(zé)任轉(zhuǎn)嫁實(shí)現(xiàn)資源聚焦。此舉不僅將重塑未來(lái)全球安全架構(gòu)，也將深刻影響大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局。隨著美軍戰(zhàn)略重心向美洲轉(zhuǎn)移，美國(guó)將進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化本土防衛(wèi)和對(duì)周邊關(guān)鍵區(qū)域的控制，其在歐洲同盟體系中的角色將由“前沿主導(dǎo)者”轉(zhuǎn)為“后方督促者”。

The GPR report has drawn close attention from America's European allies, as it involves potential adjustments to US global military deployments. According to reports, the US military may gradually withdraw part of its forces from regions deemed of secondary importance, such as Europe and the Middle East, and redeploy them to the Americas or the so-called Indo-Pacific. Analysts note that this shift will redefine transatlantic relations, putting America's strategic credibility and alliance system to the test.

《全球態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估》報(bào)告因涉及美軍全球部署調(diào)整備受歐洲盟友關(guān)注。據(jù)報(bào)道，美軍可能逐步從歐洲、中東等被列為次要方向的地區(qū)撤出部分力量，轉(zhuǎn)而投向美洲或印太地區(qū)。有分析指出，這一動(dòng)向?qū)⒅匦露x跨大西洋關(guān)系，使美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略信譽(yù)與同盟體系面臨考驗(yàn)。

Recent signs suggest that the US military is gradually reducing its direct investment in Europe's defense. Both the Pentagon and the EU have confirmed that the US will halt funding for the Baltic Security Initiative within the year. This initiative has long served as a key pillar of defense for the three Baltic states and a crucial component in strengthening NATO's eastern flank deployments. In addition, the US has shown diminishing interest in expanding its missile defense deployments in Europe, and the planned reinforcement of the Patriot missile defense system to Eastern European countries may be delayed.

近期多種跡象顯示，美軍正逐步削減對(duì)歐洲防務(wù)的直接投入。五角大樓與歐盟均證實(shí)，美國(guó)將于年內(nèi)停止為“波羅的海安全倡議”提供資金。該倡議長(zhǎng)期支撐波羅的海三國(guó)防務(wù)，是強(qiáng)化北約東翼部署的關(guān)鍵項(xiàng)目。此外，美國(guó)對(duì)在歐洲增加部署導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)興趣減弱，原計(jì)劃向東歐國(guó)家增援“愛(ài)國(guó)者”防空系統(tǒng)的安排可能推遲。

NATO allies generally expect that around 80,000 US troops stationed in Europe will be gradually withdrawn over the coming years. Although President Donald Trump recently assured Polish President Karol Nawrocki that the US will not withdraw troops from Poland and may even increase its presence, he also acknowledged that troop reductions in other parts of Europe are under consideration. Such differentiated statements are intended not only to reassure key allies but also to reflect the uncertainty of the US strategy toward Europe.

北約盟國(guó)普遍預(yù)期，未來(lái)幾年，約8萬(wàn)駐歐美軍將逐步撤離。盡管特朗普近期在與波蘭總統(tǒng)納夫羅茨基會(huì)面時(shí)承諾“不會(huì)從波蘭撤軍，甚至可能增派兵力”，但他同時(shí)承認(rèn)正考慮削減在歐洲其他地區(qū)的駐軍。這種區(qū)別對(duì)待的表態(tài)，既意在安撫關(guān)鍵盟友，也折射出美國(guó)對(duì)歐戰(zhàn)略的不確定性。

Some analysts note that these developments send a clear signal to Europe that the long-term commitment of the US to European security is weakening. Within the US military, there is a widespread perception that military operations in Europe and the Middle East are a waste of resources. Some European media have stated that Europe will adopt a more cautious approach in assessing the security commitments of the US to its allies and adjust its own security strategy accordingly. The reduction of US troops in Europe will undermine NATO's recently set defense build-up goals and, objectively, accelerate the EU’s pursuit of greater defense autonomy.

有評(píng)論分析稱(chēng)，上述動(dòng)向向歐洲傳遞出明確信號(hào)：美國(guó)對(duì)歐洲安全的長(zhǎng)期承諾正在松動(dòng)。美軍內(nèi)部普遍認(rèn)為，在歐洲與中東地區(qū)的軍事行動(dòng)是在浪費(fèi)資源。部分歐洲媒體表示，歐洲將以更加審慎的態(tài)度評(píng)估美國(guó)對(duì)盟友的安全承諾，并據(jù)此調(diào)整自身安全戰(zhàn)略。美減少駐歐部隊(duì)，將使北約近期制定的軍備建設(shè)目標(biāo)受挫，也將在客觀上推動(dòng)歐盟防務(wù)自主建設(shè)步伐。